• Help
  • Contact
  • Services
  • About
Sign In Join Now
Login
Join Now
Home News About Us Contact Us Help Services Sitemap
My Competitions
Join Competition
Start a Competition
Invite Players
  • Home

  • Competitions

  • Tipping

  • Prizes

My Competitions
Join Competition
Start a Competition
Invite Players
Keep Up To Date

Sports News
Back to News

AFL Betting Tips Round 21 Preview: The early games

  • Author: Alex Christodoulou
  • Aug 09, 2018 12:57 PM
  • AAP

Hawks and Cats ready to resume rivalry

Both the Bombers and the Tigers would be expected to win against their respective opponents, St Kilda and Gold Coast, in the early clashes of Round 21.

But in a season of upsets, anything is possible in these interesting betting games.

The definate highlight though will be the latest installment of the Hawthorn v Geelong rivalry that has been one of the most enjoyable match-ups to watch over the past decade.

 

Did you catch our latest AFL odds update including our best futures bets? Read it here

 

Essendon v St Kilda

AFL Odds: Essendon $1.20 (-28.5) / St Kilda $4.60 (+28.5)

The opening fixture of the round sees the Bombers take on the Saints in what is a must win clash if Essendon want to be playing finals footy.

The Bombers need to not only win on Friday night, but win all of their final three matches, as well as hope that other results go their way.

They were on course to come from the clouds to make the eight, before a narrow loss to Hawthorn last round dealt their finals chances a serious blow.

With great winning form prior to that result, and with so much more to play for, Essendon should make light work of St Kilda. 

After a great start, the Saints fell back down to earth in their Round 20 match against the Bulldogs.

Despite this 35-point loss, St Kilda's Seb Ross kicked 3 goals and had 40 disposals in what was arguably his best ever game for the club.

Another standout performance is required to give the Saints any hope.

AFL Player In Matt Dea (Bombers, likely)

AFL Player Out Matt Guelfi (Bombers, likely), Tom Hickey (Saints), Josh Battle (Saints)

AFL Weather Weather will play no part under the closed roof at Etihad.

 

AFL Player StatsKey AFL Stats

  • The Bombers have won 6 consecutive matches as a home favourite: Essendon to win head-to-head @ $1.20
  • The underdogs have covered the line in 9 of the past 11 meetings between these two sides: St Kilda to cover the +28.5 point line @ $1.92
  • Essendon have won 5 of their last 6 matches as a home favourite by a margin of 1-39 points: Essendon to win by a margin of 1-39 points @ $2.25

AFL Betting TipAFL Betting Tip: Essendon to cover the -28.5 point line @ $1.92

Reasoning: Based on form, you have to go with this bet. Even with St Kilda's best player Seb Ross performing his socks off last week, his team still went down by 35 points. Expect a bigger margin here.

 

Any idea who the leading AFL expert tipsters are? Check out the tipster leaderboard here 

 

Hawthorn v Geelong

AFL Odds: Hawthorn $2.20 (+6.5) / Geelong $1.68 (-6.5)

Based on how they've been playing in the last month, it's incredible that the Cats find themselves in ninth spot on the ladder, one win outside the top eight.

The Hawks meanwhile have flown somewhat under the radar, finding themselves in fifth, with yet another finals appearance looking likely.

This game therefore has huge bearing on the race for finals footy.

If this game were played down in Geelong, the Cats would be morals to take the four points and leapfrog the Hawks on the ladder.

However, at the MCG, any result is possible.

With Tom Mitchell continuing to rack up the numbers in the middle of the park, his influence will need to be curtailed if the Cats want to be winning.

But after coming within a whisker of snapping the Tigers record-breaking MCG winning streak, the Cats look to have the better form heading in.

AFL Player In Tom Stewart (Geelong, likely), Rhys Stanley (Geelong, likely)

AFL Player Out None

AFL Weather Plenty of rain around, so this could turn into a low-scoring and hard-fought affair.

 

AFL Player StatsAFL Stats in Focus

AFL Stats

This table shows a key difference in how Alastair Clarkson's and Chris Scott's sides set up.

While Geelong have the better midfield and perform well in the stoppages with high clearance numbers, the Hawks are better on the outside, using the ball effectively and getting it inside 50.

But with wet weather forecast, winning the ball from clearances will be more important, and its the reason why Geelong have the advantage in this game.

Key AFL Stat

  • 3 of the last 4 matches between these two sides have been decided by less than a goal: Either team to win by less than 15.5 points @ $2.50

AFL Betting TipAFL Betting Tip: Geelong to cover the -6.5 point line @ $1.92

Reasoning: With too many high-class players that are getting better each week in the lead up to finals, and with a style of play that is better adapted to wet weather, expect the Cats to be too strong.

 

Gold Coast v Richmond

AFL Odds: Gold Coast $17 (+65.5) / Richmond $1.01 (-65.5)

One of the more interesting fixtures of the week sees the Tigers travel up to the Gold Coast to take on the struggling Suns.

After the Tigers just held on to their four point lead against Geelong last week, this game can go one of two ways.

Either Richmond get complacent in the belief that they can't lose, and receive another massive scare against a cellar-dwelling Suns.

Or, more likely, they bounce back from last week's scare and put Gold Coast away in the first quarter, and go on to post a huge win.

What is going for the Suns is that Richmond's four losses in 2018 have come outside of Victoria.

But after coming off a 96-point loss to the Demons, you wouldn't tip the Suns to cover the line with much confidence.

AFL Player In Steven May (Suns), David Swallow (Suns, likely), Dion Prestia (Tigers, likely)

AFL Player Out Peter Wright (Suns)

AFL Weather No rain around, so scoring should prove easy.

 

AFL Player StatsKey AFL Stats

  • The Tigers have won their last 4 matches in Queensland by a margin of 40+ points: Richmond to win by a margin of 40+ points @ $1.20
  • Reigning premiers have failed to cover the line in 7 consecutive matches played in August: Gold Coast to cover the +65.5 point line @ $1.92
  • Gold Coast have covered the line in 7 of their last 9 day matches at Metricon Stadium following a loss.

AFL Betting TipAFL Betting Tip: Gold Coast to cover the +65.5 point line @ $1.92

Reasoning: The Tigers have been poor outside of Victoria this year, and the Suns will look to show something after a humiliating loss last week. 

Ads

  • Home
  • Competitions
  • Tipping
  • Start a Competition
  • Search for Competition
  • Terms of Use
  • |
  • Privacy
  • |
  • Security Policy
  • |
  • Help
  • |
  • Contact
  • |
  • Site Map
  • |
  • Links
@ 2019 The Great Footy Tip Off
Login
Forgot Password?
Don't have an account? Join
Standard Tipping Rules (Betting Prices Game)
  • Each winning tip score equals the price of the team at the time the tip is submitted as appearing on your tipping screen.
  • If no prices are available, the score for a winning tip will equal the starting price of the winning team at Sportsbetting.com.au
  • For NRL tipping - If the match is a draw at full time, tip score equals the price of the team awarded for selecting the winner of the golden point play off. If it is still a draw after golden point no points are awarded for the game.
  • For AFL, Super Rugby and Mitre 10 Rugby competitions - No points are awarded for drawn games.
  • For A-League/EPL you must select the 'Draw' to receive the price when the match results in a draw. If you select a team in a drawn match you will receive no points for the match.
  • A score margin is required to be entered for 1 game within the round.
Margin Games
  • For one match in each round you will be required to enter a margin. The margin represents the amount that you predict your selected team will win by. Your margin score will be used to determine the winner of a round or the entire competition if the tipping scores are equal. The lower your margin score the better.
  • Calculating margins

    If the team you tip wins the match, your margin score is the difference between the actual margin in the Full Time Score that the team you tipped won by, and the margin your entered. For example if you tipped Australia

    Full time score Australia 54 vs Italy 6
    Margin entered 36
    Actual Margin 48
    Margin Score 48 - 36 = 12

    If the team you tipped loses the match, your margin score is the actual margin plus the margin entered. For example if you tipped Italy:

    Full time score Australia 54 vs Italy 6
    Margin entered 6
    Actual Margin 48
    Margin Score 48 + 6 = 54

  • If a tipper does not submit a tip for a game they are awarded the away team.
  • If a tipper does not submit any tips for a round then they do not receive points for the first winning tip in that round.
  • Tips can be entered up to advertised start time for the game.
  • After the advertised start time has passed tips for the game cannot be entered.
  • Tips cannot be changed after they are submitted.
  • For competitions where tippers enter a margin, the margin score will be used to determine the winner of a round or the overall competition if the tip scores are equal. For example if two tippers share 1st place on 100 points, the tipper with the lowest margin score will be the winner.
  • If the margin feature is not turned on and tippers have equal tipping scores, or if tippers have equal tipping scores and equal margins, the winner will be awarded using a count back system where the tipper who led most recently will be awarded the prize.
  • If tippers cannot be split using these methods then the prize will be shared.
Standard Tipping Rules (Points Game)
  • Picks are entered for each game in a round. 1 point is awarded for picking the winner of the match.
  • A bonus 5 points are awarded for picking a perfect round.
  • For NRL picking - If the match is a draw at full time, 1 point is awarded for selecting the winner of the golden point play off. If it is still a draw after golden point no points are awarded for the game.
  • For AFL, Super Rugby and Mitre 10 Rugby competitions - If the match result is a draw, no points are awarded for picks in the match.
  • For A-League/EPL you must select the 'Draw' to receive 1 point when the match results in a draw. If you select a team in a drawn match you will receive no points for the match.
  • A margin score is required to be entered for one match in each round. The margin represents the amount that you predict your selected team will win by. Your margin score will be used to determine the winner of a round or the entire contest if the scores are equal. The lower your margin score the better the entrant is deemed to have performed.
Score Margin Information
  • For one match in each round you will be required to enter a score margin. The margin represents the amount that you predict your selected team will win by. Your margin score will be used to determine the winner of a round or the entire competition if the picking scores are equal. The lower your margin score the better.

  • Calculating margins

    If the team you pick wins the match, your margin score is the difference between the actual margin in the Full Time Score that the team you picked won by, and the margin you entered. For example, if you picked New Zealand in the following scenario:

    Full time score New Zealand 54 vs Australia 6
    Margin entered 36
    Actual Margin 48
    Margin Score 48 - 36 = 12

    If the team you picked loses the match, your margin score is the actual margin plus the margin entered. For example, if you picked Australia for the same scenario:

    Full time score New Zealand 54 vs Australia 6
    Margin entered 6
    Actual Margin 48
    Margin Score 48 + 6 = 54
  • If a entrant does not submit a pick for a game, they are assigned the away team as their pick for that game.
  • If a entrant does not submit any picks for a round, as a penalty, they do not receive points for their first winning pick in that round. For example, if 8 away teams win in the round that the entrant missed, then 7 points will be awarded.
  • Picks can be entered up to advertised start time for the game.
  • After the advertised start time has passed picks for the game cannot be entered or changed.
  • Picks can be changed up to the advertised start time of the game.
  • Points awarded to entrants will be aggregated at the completion of each round during the contest, and entrants will be ranked in accordance with the points they scored and their margin score for the round.

  • For competitions where entrants enter a margin, the margin score will be used to determine the winner of a round or the overall competition if the pick scores are equal. For example if two entrants share 1st place on 100 points, the entrant with the lowest margin score will be the winner.
  • If there is tip score and margin score tie-break, the winner of the round or the overall competition will be the entrant who was first to enter their picks.
  • If entrants cannot be split using these methods then the prize will be shared.
Warning!
Prices Game tips are locked in once submitted.
Do you want to lock in your tips now?