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AFL Betting Tips Round 22: Key Stats for Sunday arvo footy

  • Author: Alex Christodoulou
  • Aug 19, 2018 12:57 PM
  • AAP

Eagles set to soar against downbeat Demons

Sunday afternoon AFL begins with Carlton facing yet another uphill battle, this time against the Dogs.

Then, Melbourne will look to prove they deserve a finals spot against the high-flying West Coast Eagles.

Finally, The Kangaroos will need to do everything to get the four points and make a late hop up the ladder into a top eight spot. 

 

Carlton v Western Bulldogs

AFL Odds: Carlton $4.20 (+28.5) / Western Bulldogs $1.23 (-28.5)

Fans of the Doggies will be pleased with how their team are finishing off the season, despite being out of finals contention.

The Dogs have two impressive wins on the trot, and a very realistic chance to make it three against a Carlton outfit in dire need of an offseason.

The Blues line-up is just too young to be competitive on a week-to-week basis. Yet after a great first half performance against the Dockers last week, they certainly have the potential to win this game.

But with the form the Dogs have been in, and especially the individual form of players like Marcus Bontempelli and Jason Johannisen, Carlton fans shouldn't- and won't- expect too much here.

AFL Player In Easton Wood (Dogs, likely)

AFL Player Out None

AFL Weather Perfect conditions for football under the closed roof.

 

AFL Player StatsKey AFL Stats

  • Carlton hasn't defeated the Dogs since Round 5, 2014.
  • The Blues have covered the line in 8 of their 20 games in 2018: Carlton to cover the +28.5 point line @ $1.92
  • The Bulldogs have won 58% of their games at Etihad Stadium since 2016, after a win in the previous round: Western Bulldogs to win head to head @ $1.23

AFL Betting TipAFL Betting Tip: Western Bulldogs to cover the -28.5 point line @ $1.92

Reasoning: Based on what they've shown in their previous two matches, the Dogs are specials to win and win big.

 

West Coast v Melbourne

AFL Odds: West Coast $1.62 (-9.5) / Melbourne $2.30 (+9.5)

Melbourne's mental demons are surfacing yet again. 

A limp performance saw them go down to the Swans last week, seriously jeopardising their finals chances.

A team that looks like the best in the comp when they are putting away the struggling teams, Melbourne just seem to lack the big-game experience to triumph against top eight opposition.

They face another stern test on Sunday, and another chance to snap their woeful run against top eight teams, when they travel west to take on the Eagles.

West Coast would be on a high after their after-the siren victory over Port, which saw them all but secure a top two spot and a home final.

And with a fantastic record at Optus Stadium this year, the Eagles will be confident of winning here as well as going far this season.

AFL Player In Jake Melksham (Demons, likely), Michael Hibberd (Demons, likely)

AFL Player Out None

AFL Weather Sunny conditions, perfect for high-scoring footy.

 

AFL Player StatsAFL Stats in Focus

Contrasting Styles    League Rankings

  Eagles     Demons 

Contested Possessions

13th 1st

Inside 50

8th 1st

Effective disposal percentage

5th 14th

Marks

1st 15th

This table neatly summarises how both teams play.

Melbourne wins the ball in the contest and quickly sends it forward, whereas West Coast likes to control the tempo of the game with skilful kicking and marking.

While the Eagles composure could be enough to get the job done, don't dismiss the Dees.

With so much to prove, their tough, attacking style could stand them in good stead, provided they don't continue to choke in the big moments.

Key AFL Stat

  • The Demons have an 0-5 record against top 8 opposition in 2018: West Coast to win head to head @ $1.62

AFL Betting TipAFL Betting Tip: Melbourne to win head to head @ $2.30

Reasoning: The Dees will give absolutely everything to snap their terrible top eight record, and secure a finals position for their loyal fans.

On their day, they are unstoppable, and this could be one of those days.

 

Adelaide v North Melbourne

AFL Odds: Adelaide $1.35 (-19.5) / North Melbourne $3.20 (+19.5)

Now officially without any chance of playing in September, it remains to be seen how the Crows will perform in what for them is a dead rubber.

They will either give up and gift wrap the four points for Brad Scott and his men, or they will respond with a strong performance in front of their home crowd.

The Kangaroos will be coming out prepared for the latter, as they can make no more mistakes after slipping up against the Dogs last week.

Sitting at 10th on the ladder, one win outside of the eight, the Kangas need to win both of their final games as well as hope other results go their way.

With Ben Brown's Coleman medal lead cut back by Jack Reiwoldt, he will be looking to come out and kick a bag for his team, as well as for himself.

AFL Player In Paul Seedsman (Adelaide, likely), Riley Knight (Adelaide, likely)

AFL Player Out Taylor Walker (Adelaide)

AFL Weather Partly cloudy with very little rain forecast. The players alone will decide the outcome.

 

AFL Player StatsKey AFL Stats

  • The last 8 fixtures between these two sides have been won by the home team: Adelaide to win head to head @ $1.35
  • Adelaide has a 5-1 record at the Adelaide Oval after a loss in the previous round this year: Adelaide to win head to head @ $1.35
  • The Crows have covered the line in only 8 of their 20 matches in 2018: North Melbourne to cover the +19.5 point line @ $1.92

AFL Betting TipAFL Betting Tip: No bet

Reasoning: So much depends on Adelaide's mentality. This is too big a risk to bet with any real confidence in this game.  

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