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AFL Betting Tips Round 23: Key Stats for Sunday footy

  • Author: Alex Christodoulou
  • Aug 25, 2018 12:57 PM
  • AAP

GWS set for giant step towards maiden flag

Sunday afternoon kicks off with West Coast making the long road trip to Brisbane, where they will attempt to secure a top two spot.

Then Sunday's feature game sees the Demons host the Giants, with both teams looking to put themselves in a prime position for the finals.

And in the final game of the 2018 home-and-away season, both the Saints and Kangas will be looking to give their fans some confidence heading into the 2019 season.

 

Brisbane v West Coast

AFL Odds: Brisbane $2.50 (+11.5) / West Coast $1.54 (-11.5)

This game promises to be a belter, with both Brisbane and West Coast more than capable of getting the win.

Both of these clubs have gone above and beyond pre-season expectations, bringing much joy to their sets of supporters.

A win here for West Coast would have a huge impact on their finals aspirations as it guarantees a second place finish and with that, a home qualifying final. 

However, a defeat would see the Eagles drop as low as fourth and relinquish their chance of hosting a qualifying final, and seriously jeopardise their chances of going all the way.

Brisbane meanwhile are fresh off a superb second-half of the season, and will be confident of another win here.

Their form at the Gabba in particular has pundits raving, with their worst home ground performance all year against GWS losing by 27-points.

This promises to be another tight affair.

AFL Player In Oscar McInerny (Lions)

AFL Player Out Alex Witherden (Lions) Jack Darling (West Coast, likely)

AFL Weather A high chance of showers up in Brisbane, which will make each goal kicked extra-crucial.

 

AFL Player StatsKey AFL Stats

  • The Eagles have won their past 7 games against the Lions: West Coast to win head to head @ $1.54
  • The Lions have covered the line in all 3 games at the Gabba this year after a win in the previous round: Brisbane to cover the +11.5 point line @ $1.92
  • West Coast have covered the line in 6 of their 8 interstate day matches in 2018: West Coast to cover the -11.5 point line @ $1.92

AFL Betting TipAFL Betting Tip: Either team to win by a margin under 15.5 points @ $2.75

Reasoning: Everything points to a tight affair, especially with star West Coast forward Josh Kennedy still out injured.

 

Melbourne v GWS

AFL Odds: Melbourne $1.44 (-15.5) / GWS $2.80 (+15.5)

Just like the Swans v Hawks fixture, this clash on Sunday also has huge ramifications on finals seedings.

A win for 7th-placed Melbourne over 6th-placed GWS could see them rise as high as fourth, while the Giants could also sneak into the top four if results go their way.

However, a win for either team would most likely give them a home elimination final, which is a significant and sought-after advantage.

After snapping their top eight hoodoo with an impressive win over the Eagles in Round 22, many are tipping Melbourne to continue on their merry way after securing their first finals spot since 2006.

They will line up as favourites against the injury-plagued Giants, who can partly blame last week's loss to the Swans on injury to key defender and co-captain Phil Davis.

After being forced to play in the forward line because of his limited mobility, Davis's direct opponent Buddy Franklin kicked the four goals that proved the difference.

But with Davis expected to play, and the return of silky midfielder Josh Kelly after missing last week with concussion, GWS should put in a strong performance.

AFL Player In Josh Kelly (GWS), Zac Williams (GWS, likely)

AFL Player Out Ryan Griffen (GWS)

AFL Weather Sunny conditions, so expect a big, partisan Melbourne crowd to get behind their Dees.

 

AFL Player StatsAFL Stats in Focus

Midfield stats    League Rankings

Demons Giants

Contested Possessions

1st 3rd

Clearances

3rd 1st

Both Melbourne and GWS play a similar style of play. It involves winning the ball in the stoppages and contests, before running or sending the ball forward.

The Dees have struggled in 2018, when they have come up against top 8 teams that match, or surpass, their contested possession stats.

It seems if this advantage is taken away, Melbourne don't have a Plan B to fall back on, and it's the reason why a loss here looks likely against another good contested ball team.

Key AFL Stat

  • The last 4 encounters between these sides have been won by the home team: Melbourne to win head to head @ $1.44

AFL Betting TipAFL Betting Tip: GWS to win head to head @ $2.80

Reasoning: On top of everything else, Kelly being back will bolster the Giants' supreme midfield.

 

St Kilda v North Melbourne

AFL Odds: St Kilda $3.66 (+23.5) / North Melbourne $1.29 (-23.5)

The final game of the 2018 AFL regular season sees two Melbourne clubs do battle, each with a point to prove.

North will be disappointed after missing out on finals footy, and will be looking to come out and put in a positive showing to end the season on a high.

Full forward Ben Brown will also be gunning for the Coleman medal, after he was overtaken by Jack Reiwoldt in Round 22.

St Kilda meanwhile fell just short of pulling of an impressive upset over the Hawks last week.

If they can back up that performance, they will get the better of the Roos and give their fans some confidence heading into next season.

AFL Player In Jake Carlisle (Saints, likely

AFL Player Out None

AFL Weather The final game played under the closed roof in 2018. Perfect conditions for high-scoring football.

 

AFL Player StatsKey AFL Stats

  • The Kangaroos have covered the line in 4 of their last 5 matches when coming off a loss as an underdog: North Melbourne to cover the -23.5 point line @ $1.92
  • St Kilda have covered the line in only 4 of their 12 matches at Etihad Stadium in 2018: North Melbourne to cover the -23.5 point line @ $1.92
  • North Melbourne have won only 4 of their 12 daytime matches in Victoria in 2018: St Kilda to win head to head @ $3.66

AFL Betting TipAFL Betting Tip: St Kilda to cover the +23.5 point line @ $1.92

Reasoning: Based on last week's performance, and in the last game of the season, it's unlikely that the Saints will lose by a big margin. 

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  • Calculating margins

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    Full time score New Zealand 54 vs Australia 6
    Margin entered 36
    Actual Margin 48
    Margin Score 48 - 36 = 12

    If the team you picked loses the match, your margin score is the actual margin plus the margin entered. For example, if you picked Australia for the same scenario:

    Full time score New Zealand 54 vs Australia 6
    Margin entered 6
    Actual Margin 48
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