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NRL Expert Tipster of the Year 2018

  • Author: Alex Christodoulou
  • Sep 05, 2018 07:01 PM
  • AAP

Mark Geyer claims top gong in the battle of expert tipsters

The 2018 home and away season has come to an end, and footy tipsters all over the country are reflecting on one of the toughest seasons in memory for predicting winning teams with any consistancy. 

This fact is represented on the final 2018 NRL standings, where the smallest margin in NRL history separates first and eighth place.

Most punters were left floundering, with plenty of NRL media experts also failing to make heads or tails of a crazy rugby league season.   

Despite the significant challenge facing NRL analysts in 2018, the cream certainly rose to the top which is there for all to see on the NRL expert tipster leaderboard. 

 

How the NRL Expert Tipsters fared in 2018

We pitted 48 of the game's leading journalists, ex-players and figure heads against each other, tracking their tips over each of the 25 rounds to find out who really is the sharpest mind in the game.  

Here are some of the key facts from this season's results:

  • 6 of the top 10 tipsters were ex-players, 5 of which were New South Welshmen.
  • 4 of the top 20 tipsters were female, with Yvonne Sampson from Fox Sports leading the charge.
  • Continuing NSW's dominance over QLD this year, 4 of the The Daily Telegraph's journalists finished in the top 10, whilst the best finisher from the Courier Mail was Sam Squires who came in 15th.
  • The entertaining and insightful Johns brothers share more in common than a surname, with both finishing in the top 10 on equal points for the season.
  • Leading NRL journalist Phil "Buzz" Rothfield and Panthers' supremo Phil "Gus" Gould shared the runner-up position.

NRL Expert Tipster

Leading female tipster, Yvonne Sampson                   Source: AAP

 

The Winner

The title of NRL Expert Tipster of the year went to former player, Penrith Panthers legend and current Triple M presenter, Mark Geyer.

MG finished on 120 correct tips for the season, three tips clear of Gus and Buzz, and with a tidy 9.7% profit on turnover i.e. if you had placed a $10 bet on every one of MG's tips, you would have made $186 profit.

Residing in Sydney's west and ever proud to fly the 'Westie' flag, Geyer hosts the 'Rush Hour with MG,' which takes place on weeknights from 6-7pm on Triple M.

Listeners to the program won't be surprised that Geyer beat all comers. The gentle giant's NRL knowledge, unique perspective on the game and sense of humour continues to make him a fan favourite within the rugby league community.

NRL Expert Tips

Full leaderboard here

 

We caught up with MG to pick his brain on the secrets to his tipping success this season and his NRL betting tips for the finals series.

Home ground advantage was definitely one of Geyer's main considerations, telling us that he places a "big importance on home grounds, especially those of the suburban type".

Furthermore, Geyer holds a strong belief that teams who share grounds, like ANZ Stadium, are disadvantaged. He noted "I often tread carefully when tipping teams who don't have their own ground".  

Asked whether he considered extra motivation factors when deciding who to tip, such as a coach being under fire or a player with something to prove, Geyer responded "emotional factors have to be taken into account, but it's not the major contributing factor. Form, or lack there of, plays the biggest part". 

But what would set Geyer apart from most tipsters is his knowledge of how crucial a team's forward pack are to their success.

"I ALWAYS look at the forward packs first when searching for an outcome. Then I look at the team's forwards on the bench. I suppose being an ex 'pig' myself, it's only natural I lean this way".

One of the toughest forwards the game has ever seen, Geyer's tendency to favour the forwards stood him in good stead, given teams with huge packs like the Rabbitohs, Roosters and Storm all fared well this season.  

On the flip side, tipsters who were seduced by the talent-laden back lines of the Parramatta, Manly and the Cowboys were found out this year.

However, there wasn't always a scientific reason behind the ex-Panther's tips, who stated that while he mostly goes with his head over his heart, "I never tip against the Panthers".  

Considering how many games Penrith got out of jail with comeback wins this season, Geyer certainly rode his luck in 2018.

"Luck plays a MAJOR part in tipping a winner in the NRL. It's why I never bet on a winner of a game, just the exotics such as first try scorer".

MG was modest in dismissing his success to luck. However, there is no question that his rugby league knowledge, insight and perspective as a former forward helped him to the summit ahead of all other experts working in the NRL media. Finishing top of the toughest tipster leaderboards in the country.  

On his predictions for the finals and Dally M medal, Geyer stated "I think the Storm will somehow find a way to win the comp, and I think Roger Tuivasa-Sheck will win the Dally M with Tevita Pangai Jnr as a smokie".

Based on his tipping performance this season, you'd be brave to bet against him. 

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  • Each winning tip score equals the price of the team at the time the tip is submitted as appearing on your tipping screen.
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Margin Games
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    If the team you tip wins the match, your margin score is the difference between the actual margin in the Full Time Score that the team you tipped won by, and the margin your entered. For example if you tipped Australia

    Full time score Australia 54 vs Italy 6
    Margin entered 36
    Actual Margin 48
    Margin Score 48 - 36 = 12

    If the team you tipped loses the match, your margin score is the actual margin plus the margin entered. For example if you tipped Italy:

    Full time score Australia 54 vs Italy 6
    Margin entered 6
    Actual Margin 48
    Margin Score 48 + 6 = 54

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Standard Tipping Rules (Points Game)
  • Picks are entered for each game in a round. 1 point is awarded for picking the winner of the match.
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  • For NRL picking - If the match is a draw at full time, 1 point is awarded for selecting the winner of the golden point play off. If it is still a draw after golden point no points are awarded for the game.
  • For AFL, Super Rugby and Mitre 10 Rugby competitions - If the match result is a draw, no points are awarded for picks in the match.
  • For A-League/EPL you must select the 'Draw' to receive 1 point when the match results in a draw. If you select a team in a drawn match you will receive no points for the match.
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Score Margin Information
  • For one match in each round you will be required to enter a score margin. The margin represents the amount that you predict your selected team will win by. Your margin score will be used to determine the winner of a round or the entire competition if the picking scores are equal. The lower your margin score the better.

  • Calculating margins

    If the team you pick wins the match, your margin score is the difference between the actual margin in the Full Time Score that the team you picked won by, and the margin you entered. For example, if you picked New Zealand in the following scenario:

    Full time score New Zealand 54 vs Australia 6
    Margin entered 36
    Actual Margin 48
    Margin Score 48 - 36 = 12

    If the team you picked loses the match, your margin score is the actual margin plus the margin entered. For example, if you picked Australia for the same scenario:

    Full time score New Zealand 54 vs Australia 6
    Margin entered 6
    Actual Margin 48
    Margin Score 48 + 6 = 54
  • If a entrant does not submit a pick for a game, they are assigned the away team as their pick for that game.
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  • Picks can be entered up to advertised start time for the game.
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  • For competitions where entrants enter a margin, the margin score will be used to determine the winner of a round or the overall competition if the pick scores are equal. For example if two entrants share 1st place on 100 points, the entrant with the lowest margin score will be the winner.
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